Alberta separation no guarantee of success

ALBERTA beware. Ten years ago this month, the United Kingdom held its Brexit referendum. It voted by the narrowest of margins — 51.9 per cent to 48.1 per cent — to leave the European Union. The decade since has seen an economically stagnant Britain, struggling to regain lost financial ground. It has fallen behind its competitors in growth, trade and productivity.

The siren call of “freedom” proved sufficient for the Leave campaign to prevail. It has not proved sufficient to make Britain and its citizens richer and better off. Four different studies show the numbers and impacts. It’s not pretty.

The Office for Budget Responsibility, an independent government agency in the U.K., akin to Canada’s Parliamentary Budget Office, has conducted regular, updated analysis of Brexit’s impact on the British economy.

“Both exports and imports will be around 15 per cent lower in the long run than if the U.K. had remained in the EU,” it found. Brexit advocates said this would be made up by new trade deals with non-EU countries. Not so fast, says the OBR, whose analysis said any such deals “will not have a material impact” on replacing lost trade with Europe.

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